Calling Spade a Spade: Jung sabotaging an elected government

Calling Spade a Spade: Jung sabotaging an elected government

RELEVANCE OF OPEC?

In its 167^th Meeting on 5^th June, 2015, OPEC decided to maintain the existing quota @30 million bbls a day. Immediately after the decision, oil prices went up almost 2 % (Brent-$62.03 to 63.19/bbl) despite oil glut. The market reaction was contrary to the same decision taken earlier in the 166^th meeting on 27^th November, 2014, when Brent crude oil prices had fallen by 7 % from $77.39/bbl to $71.89/bbl. The decline of 7% in Nov., 2014 was notwithstanding the fall of nearly $40/bbl during June to Nov.2014, prior to the meeting. The decline continued for next 2 months to bring down the price of Brent crude oil to $45/bbl in January, 2015

Decline in Crude oil prices after the 166^th OPEC meeting was in line with the strategy of OPEC.  What about the increase in prices after 167^th OPEC meeting? Did OPEC maintain existing quota to support the prices? Certainly Not!

If so, this brings us to the issue of Relevance of OPEC for Oil markets.

According to OPEC, its main purpose is to unify the policies of its member countries regarding petroleum to create:

(a)    Stability in Oil Markets as swing producer.

(b)   Security of supply to consumers.

(c)    Fair return to member countries.

Unfortunately, OPEC’s decision in the 166^th meeting in Nov.2014 did not meet the objectives stated at (a) and (c). The decision was aimed to get supremacy in Oil Markets by creating oil glut; lowering the prices to the extent that shale oil producers are forced to stop production. Subsequent, increase in discounts by Saudi Arabia in Dec’14/Jan’15 further strengthened the underlying objective of the decision of the meeting.  The decision of the 167^th Meeting on 5^th June, 2015 was no different. However, this time the market reaction surprised many, possibly the OPEC members also.

 According to IEA, the production by OPEC and non OPEC producer will continue to create surplus of more than 1.5 million bbls per day unless non OPEC producers reduce production.

Discussions with some Shale oil producers have revealed that some of them may be back in the market/increase production, if US Oil (WTI) stabilizes above $60/bbl. Price on 5^th June was $58.88/bbl.

What happens, if?

- Oil Supply/demand gap continues at existing level?

-Shale oil producers start returning to the market

·         There is already glut in the oil market and additional crude oil storage is limited.

·          Due to high refining margins, most refineries are operating at maximum capacity and the glut has moved from crude oil to products. It is unlikely to last long.

·          It is hard to say, if US shale producers will be back or increase production in short term.

·         Though the operating Rigs in USA have gone down by almost 60%, there is insignificant reduction in oil production so far. Further idling of oil rigs is unlikely after June’15.

·         Some Oil companies in US are seriously considering storing oil in cavern till 2016 or beyond.

·         The proposal to remove 40 year old ban on oil exports by USA is already with the senate. Experts familiar with the issue and procedures believe that the ban is likely to be lifted but may take 6 months or even more. Once the ban on export is lifted, it will help in increasing the price of WTI and hence a boon to shale oil producers.

Ø  Price of WTI/Brent crude oil is not sustainable at current level unless glut is taken care of or additional storage is found.

Ø  The operation of refineries at maximum capacity cannot continue as surplus product availability will bring down the refining margins, besides storage limitation.

Ø   Most Non-Opec producers are unlikely to cut production.

Ø  Shale Oil producers are unlikely to cut further production unless Oil prices go under $50/bbl.

In Conclusion:

OPEC will have to wait longer to bring down the shale producers to their knees. The question arises—OPEC supremacy at what cost? Will OPEC emerge stronger, if the shale oil producers are forced out of the market for few years? They will be back, in any case, within few years, once demand picks up in Europe and China as OPEC is already producing at full capacity.

This leads us to believe that OPEC will continue to be relevant to Oil markets as significant producer but not as swing producer, ensuring stability of the markets.

Is Arvind Kejriwal ‘An icon of Honesty & Integrity or Arrogance?’

Is Arvind Kejriwal ‘An icon of Honesty & Integrity or Arrogance?’

National Executive of AAP (Arvind Aadmi Party! Aam Aadmi Party! Arrogant Arvind Party!) removed Sh.Prashant Bhushan(PB) and Yogendra Yadav(YY) from Political affairs Council of the Party in a pre-planned ,stage managed drama of the Chief Minister of Delhi through his coterie on 4^th March,2015—a Black day in the History of AAP. During all this drama, which I never wished to take place, I heard YY ”Arvind is an icon of honesty and integrity”. During oath ceremony of the Chief Minister on 14^th February, 2015 Mr. Arvind Kejriwal warned his party men and MLAs to be cautious and ensure that they do not become victim of Arrogance.

I am wondering how good these statements are! Is Arvind Kejriwal, Chief Minister of Delhi and National Convener of AAP is really an icon of honesty and integrity? Is he really miles away from arrogance?

Unfortunately, my analysis indicates that none is true. He is no longer an icon of honesty & integrity and at best an icon of Arrogance.

There could be many reasons for Mr.Arvind Kejriwal to go to the extreme step of playing drama of resignation as Convener of AAP and removing PB and YY from PAC, which may not be known to the people at large. He might be really upset for some actions of YY and PB and wanted to get rid of them (I am not aware).He could have done so very shrewdly but he laid down the foundation stone of meeting his own waterloo. I am wondering and waiting his next public apology and crocodile tears.

Can he deny that the issues raised by PB, YY and Admiral Ramdas were wrong? Even if, he suspects that these issues were raised to malign him & letters were leaked by them (I do not think so), it does not change the validity of the issues. As a leader of the party, which claims itself to be a party with a difference, party’s impartial supporters and people all over the country had expected him to act prudently & honestly to give comfort to the people that HE is the True Leader. Unfortunately, nothing like this happened. He went underground and prompted his YESMen/Women to fight for him to demolish those who questioned him on some basic issues. What was his problem in investigating the funds, credentials of candidates in just and fair manner, if he is really honest and fair?

 In fact, I came across quite a few people who raised concerns about the candidate selection of AAP. I also   heard lot of people talking (and also observed myself) that the money spent in 2015 elections was far more than that of 2013, despite lower fund collection as per AAP’s website for 2015. I also debated this issue with one senior AAP volunteer from Maharashtra,  who had come to Delhi for campaigning and stayed with me. Unfortunately, I never received any satisfactory response from any one. Mr.Arvind Kejriwal could not give satisfactory reply, when media raised the same issues.

He was  completely blinded by the unprecedented win of AAP ,which most believe was largely due to his campaigning ,but…but…but…,something more that he conveniently ignored and at the time of oath ceremony spoke of ARROGANCE. In fact, he was completely overpowered by arrogance by that time. Possibly, PB and YY failed to assess this particular aspect. They raised questions to Arvind, they knew since long, but by now He was Honorable Chief Minister of Delhi with unprecedented win.  By now , honesty, integrity and transparency was bundled and pushed to the back yard and Arrogance was sitting right on his lap. He even refused to acknowledge the loud and clear message of the Internal Lokpal—Admiral Ramdas. If it is not arrogance than what else?

 I regret to say that Chief Minister of Delhi have failed the test of Honesty and Integrity and therefore, believe that YY made this statement only to diffuse the situation. Had CM been honest, he would have ordered complete investigation of all the issues ;prove that everything is right and he is above board. After doing so, he could have gone to step II—questioning the motives of all those who have raised the issues. This would have made him the undisputed leader of the party—icon of honesty and integrity and darling of India. Instead, he showed his supremacy(a clear sign of arrogance) to hide his dubious role(a clear sign of a dishonest person) I do not think that he can be called a leader.

Mr.Kejriwal, won Delhi elections due to several mis-steps of BJP and unholy offer of free Freebies—Water and Electricity. I am afraid that he is going to meet his waterloo (free water and loo all over Delhi) sooner than later.

Air Pollution In Delhi: Attn.Mr Arvind Kejriwal,Chief Minister Delhi

Some steps for controlling Air Pollution in Delhi:

Ø  Offbeat:

·         Stop unauthorized parking on road side.

·         Introduce Lane driving.

·         Stop burning of garbage-tree leaves, waste paper etc

Ø  Medium Term:

·         Remove roadside parking on all busy roads.

- Plan & Provide Parking lots around (within 1-4 kilometers) all major markets. Business districts and office complexes.

-Introduce feeder service (e-rickshaws/battery operated mini buses) from all metro stations and parking lots to main destinations /complexes in the market/business districts/office complexes.

-Introduce prohibitively high entry fee for all other private vehicles during peak hours in These busy

·         All main roads to have separate lanes for (1) slow moving vehicles (less than 20/30 km/hr; (2)buses/trucks/tempos and (3) others. Vehicles eligible to drive in lane (1) and (2) have to stick to their own lanes but Vehicles for Lane (3) can drive in any lane. 

·         Road signals need to be improved for 24X7 proper functioning.

·         Stoppage of traffic to allow VVIP vehicles should be avoided at least during peak hours.

·         Introduce Flexi working -hours(like in the West in some countries) concept in Government/Private offices to decongest the peak hour traffic and improve productivity.

·         Street cleaning with broom increases dust (suspended particle).Further burning of tree/plant leaves and other waste causes pollution. It should be replaced by vacuum system (Once a week/fortnight).Waste disposal should be as per best practices and not by burning. (Govt. may have to plan and find employment for current safai karamchari)

Ø  Long Term:

·         Indian Festivals like Dewali, Lohri and Holi result in very high pollution. Though some action is a must but being a religious issue, it is politically sensitive. Public awareness need to be created to celebrate these festivals so that pollution is minimized. Ban on use of crackers in residential area (may be allowed near Yamuna/canals etc.). Use of electric Candles/Diyas may be encouraged instead of wax candles, Oil Diyas. The Government  may like to use the services of some NGOs and social and enlightened religious groups to bring change, which may be quite slow.

·         Crematoriums: Use of wood, Ghee for cremation adds to pollution, besides adversely impacting environment due to cutting of trees. Govt. should start awareness programs to encourage use of electric crematoriums. Electric crematoriums should also be increased in the city.

·         Most Government sponsored projects—construction of roads, pavement of roads, building repairs in schools, hospitals and other establishment are of very poor quality due to large scale corruption. One can see repairs going on throughout the year largely due to vested interests, which results in heavy drain of government funds bedsides air pollution.Good quality construction is the desired solution.

·         Poor Roads: Roads with pot holes or in poor condition increases pollution as (1) it results in traffic jams (2) Vehicles are driven at low gear, which means more emission.

DELHI ELECTIONS 2015

Achhe Sitare or Achhe Din of BJP? 

 Arvind Kejriwal  is all set to be next Chief Minister of Delhi. He should be thankful to his old colleague Mrs. Kiran Bedi in IAC and must not forget to express his special gratitude to her on 10^th Feb, 2015.

The election for the 70 member Delhi Assembly is scheduled on 7^th February, 2015. The contest is mainly between under-nourished, infant Aam Aadmi Party(AAP), suffering with severe financial constraints for survival and mighty with well experienced, super rich BJP, having the luxury of designer signature suits by its leadership.

 Until two weeks ago, it was a tough contest between BJP & AAP. The election took a dramatic turn with the so called masterstroke with the announcement of Kiran Bedi as CM candidate of the party. Most political Pundits opined that this move of PM Modi and BJP President Amit Shah has put to rest all discussions about the new Chief Minister of Delhi. Kiran Bedi is perceived an honest candidate with no political baggage unlike most other BJP leaders and a crusader of corruption. All these characteristics of BJP were good enough to neutralize the clean image of Arvind Kejriwal,CM candidate of AAP, who was also a leading member of IAC and colleague of Kiran bedi in the movement against corruption.

This move literally meant marching orders to Arvind Kejriwal & AAP, by most experts. But I strongly felt that this decision could lead to an end of Achhe Sitare or Achhe Din of PM Modi.I twitted on 17^th January,2015.

Ravinder kumar @ravinderkumar01 · Jan 17

Breaking News: 1-Bedi,Binny and Ilmi joined BJP as opportunity to be Ministers in Delhi Govt.

2: Voters defeated all opportunists B,B & I

 The experts and political masters of BJP completely missed that similar game plans –bringing a new CM candidate—Sushma Swaraj, Harshvardhan  have  failed in the past in Delhi. Induction of Kiran Bedi in BJP, a naïve in politics just 20 days before the elections and declaring her CM candidate is as ridiculous as asking a student of engineering to write an examination for final year of medicine course. Kiran Bedi is   very arrogant and egoistic with  no or very little idea about politics. In fact, last year ,she rightly said that she is not suitable for politics and will not enter politics She needed sometime to be groomed by political experts within BJP..

After her announcement as CM candidate of BJP, her ego got such a boost that she immediately started behaving like an arrogant Chief Minister of Delhi. She believed that due to Modi wave her victory is a foregone conclusion. Some obvious questions about her past by the media bewildered her. She entered the Ganges for the holy dip and went right in the middle with the strong belief that the Ganges has been cleaned by PM Modi and is safe, not realizing that it is yet to be cleaned and made safe.

Recent interviews of Kiran Bedi, refusal to participate in debate and some unorthodox comments about her opponents made her laughing stocks in the media and middle class voters. It virtually meant garlanding Arvind Kejriwal as next Chief Minister of Delhi .A good number of middle class voters who have alienated from AAP due to its some policies during last one year started looking back at it. Kejriwal with a strong following with the lower class and the precious gift to him  (middle class voters) by Kiran Bedi once again made him the darling of Delhi voters.

The final result will be known on 10^th Feb,2015.  However, all leading indications are pointing a victory for Arvind Kejriwal. Hope that he fulfills the promises that he is making to the people of Delhi.